On Top of the Aloha Beat BLOG

Every year as part of the new edition of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report the 160 page Report also looks back at the passing year and lists those events that transpired during the year that made headlines and captured the industry’s attention and imagination. The 2010 edition is due for release on February 8, 2010.

Here are the top events that during 2009 made headlines in the residential real estate brokerage industry.

 

 

#10 Houston Becomes #1 REALTOR® Association

In August 2009 the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR) officially became the largest local Realtor® board in the United States following a recent rise in membership and a decline in membership at the Long Island (New York) Board of Realtors® (LIBOR). HAR, with a membership of 23,354 surpassed its long standing rival for the top slot by 118.These two have long been the largest local associations by far, with the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors® holding the third spot with nearly 10,000 fewer members. Congratulations to Bob Hale and his team.

 

#9 Metro Brokers Switches Franchise Brands

With 2,000 sales associates the brand switch Metro Brokers made in December 2009 from GMAC to Better Homes & Gardens recorded the largest move of one brokerage company from one franchise brand to another. The departure away from the #1 GMAC franchise in the world to become the #1 BH&G franchise in the world was a major move and strongly refutes the high value many franchises have attached to their brands. Many observe this move as the beginning of more swaps to come as franchisees increasingly look for more than just a name. They want visionary leadership, quality training, technology, Internet and social media savvy solutions and, above all, a dependable partner.

 

#8 RE BarCamp Sets Event Benchmark

RE BarCamp is an ad-hoc gathering of people (real estate professionals from different facets of the business) that share and learn in an open environment. It is widely referred to as an “unconvention” with no pre-determined programs or invited guest speakers delivering PowerPoint presentations from a stage. Rather the structure follows a round table of open discussion concerning topics sourced from the registrants and as a result of interaction between attendees. It may only have started in August 2008 but in 2009 it exploded to over 20 major cities across the country and is currently one of “the happening” events in real estate.

 

#7 RVM’s & AVM’s Become Strategic

AVM (Automated Valuation Model) is the term widely used to describe providing property valuation by using a mathematical algorithm based on the data. In real estate AVMs calculate the value of a specific property by analyzing the value of comparable properties sold and registered. The newly announced RVM (Realtor® Valuation Model) follows the same mathematical analysis but hopes to aggregate the information available from 700+ MLS' (Multiple Listing Service) across the country. The NAR, the driver behind the RVM, hopes that this model will become the default valuation method for all financial institutions nationwide. If achieved, this will be a major industry game changer.

 

#6 Realtor® Credit Union Celebrates First Year of Operation

Exactly one year ago at the 2008 Realtors® Conference & Expo in Orlando the NAR announced that it had received regulatory approval and a charter for Realtors® Federal Credit Union (RFCU). The Rockville, Maryland-based Credit Union works in partnership with the NAR as a Realtor® Benefits Program Partner, but it operates totally separate from the NAR with its own board of directors and management team. Now, one year later, RFCU has 3,000 members, $25 million in assets, $16 million in deposits and $8 million in loans, making it larger than 60% of all credit unions today; impressive. With a stated goal of being in the top 5% of all credit unions within 5 years the RFCU is definitely a sleeping giant.

 

#5 Keller Williams Climbs to Third Largest Real Estate Franchise

In March Keller Williams Realty Inc. announced at its 2009 annual convention that it had moved ahead of RE/MAX International to now claim the third-largest real estate franchise in the U.S with 72,794 associates at the end of 2008. This was according to a study by Steve Murray of REAL Trends. According to Keller Williams the growth gained momentum during the last three years of the down turn where it outpaced most other real estate franchises that had lost agents. During the period from 2006 to 2008 KW increased its associate count by an astonishing 52%. Watch out Century 21 and Coldwell Banker. You have someone coming up fast in your rear view mirror.

 

#4 Short Sales & Foreclosures Maintain High Visibility

After increasing more than 30% per year for the last four years, some estimate that foreclosures will drop to about 1.75 million in 2010/11. The Treasury Department continues to place pressure on mortgage lenders to make trial loan modifications permanent. Furthermore in December the Treasury set long-awaited guidelines designed to simplify and speed up the short sale process through its Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program. Until now the short sale process has been cumbersome for all involved; taking as long as eight to ten months to get a transaction to close. The program goes into effect April 5, 2010.

 

#3 Brookfield RPS Acquires a Great Solution

Announcing their second largest acquisition in November 2009 Brookfield RPS became the owner of Real Living Network Services. Combining all the residential real estate brokerage companies Brookfield now owns in Canada and the U.S., they are one of North America’s Top 10 leading residential real estate franchises with more than $20 billion in annual home sales and an estimated 30,000 agents. The reason the Ohio-based Real Living acquisition is such a great solution for Brookfield is that the GMAC franchise they acquired last year was lacking momentum, a CEO and contractually had to replace the name. This acquisition provided them a solution for all three challenges with very little duplication.

 

#2 RPR Becomes the NAR Convention Buzz

Squeezing in a botched (who was invited and who wasn’t) and a confusing (intermingling a B2B and B2C initiative) talking head video press announcement a week before the NAR convention was surprising. However, the timing was great as the buzz propelled the Realtors® Property Resource (RPR) into the most discussed and debated topic at the convention. Billed as the largest single source of real estate information in the world and the “ultimate” member benefit it is also ridiculed as a threat to MLS' across the country. One thing is certain, it is the most significant project undertaken by the NAR in years.

 

#1 Extended Tax Credit Helps Boost Housing Market

In the hopes of sustaining the real estate market's recent momentum, President Obama signed the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 in November, extending the FTHBC until April 2010. The legislation includes language that significantly expands the popular first-time homebuyer tax credit to more than two-thirds of current homeowners and nearly all first-time buyers. This, in its own, will not save the housing market but it sparked a rush to buy homes before the extension was approved in November. This resulted in an increase of 7.4% over October for a record 545,000 housing units sold. With rising unemployment and a sluggish economic recovery, let's hope that the incentive created by the Tax Credit carries the housing market through to the summer of 2010.

 

To reserve you advance copy of the 2010 Swanepoel TRENDS Report at the special pre-publication price visit www.RealEstateBooks.org today. This Report is widely regarded as the leading annual Report detailing the most important business, profitability and technology trends impacting the real estate industry.

Bank of America short sales and their endless runarounds and contradictions have left a bad taste in my mouth for this banking and lending institution.  Two years ago, my largest short sale problem was Countrywide.  Countrywide would take many months to review files and just when you were getting ready to dig your own grave, the approval would come through.  That wasn't the end.  Just because Countrywide approved your short sale, didn't mean squat.  I had an approved file closed for not sending in a form that Countrywide never asked us for.  That was dealing with Countrywide.

Well, when a seemingly good bank (Bank of America), swallows a large problem whole (Countrywide), you know the outcome. The problem remains, but under a different name. Bank of America.

I had been working on a short sale with Countrywide/Bank of America for well over a year.  It was a divorce.  The first contract we sent at the beginning of the listing, was denied in one month.  Why?  Not enough money.  It was the the highest offer we would ever see on the property in question.

The second offer came about six months later.  Was with Countrywide/Bank of America for three to four months.  Lower offer, but the writing was on the wall.  The local market was in decline. The neighborhood where the property was located was in a steeper decline.  Those months it took to accept the offer came back to haunt Countrywide/Bank of America when the buyer's appraisal came in.  It was nearly $20K off the accepted sales price.  Countrywide/Bank of America refused to accept the appraised value and my sellers were forced to kick that buyer to the curb. 

Put the property back on the market, not expecting what we really needed.  A cash buyer willing to overpay for the home and forgo their own appraisal.  My short sale prayers were answered when that third offer came in.  My sellers sent it in.  It was the amount that Countrywide/Bank of America has refused to move down from in our second scenario AND, there was no seller subsidy as there had been in that second scenario.

Despite what should have been flagged as a slam dunk, Bank of America (no longer calling the monkey on its back Countrywide) took four months to get back to us on this deal.  The deal was accepted BUT, the approval letter wa not the same approval letter as Countrywide had sent before.  This one left my sellers wide open to collections in the future for the shortfall of the mortgage payoff.

We asked Bank of America to remove that wording. After all, they had received MEGA money from the U.S. Government to help them cover such shortfalls.  Seemed qutie greedy of them to take from the government and then threaten to take that same shortfall amount from my sellers.  The loan would be repaid and then some.

When Bank of America refused to changed their short sale approval letter and remove the collections language, my sellers declared bankruptcy and told Bank of America to shove it.  My sellers refused to move forward with the short sale, and who can blame them?  Now Bank of America has paid the attorney's fees to foreclose (estimated at a low end of $40K in my state) and will continue to face the same or worse market conditions.  Not a good business move, but that's Bank of America for you.  Wasting America's money!

 

Chris Ann Cleland, Realtor- Licensed in Virginia, GRI & Short Sale Specialist. Affiliated with Long & Foster, 7526 Limestone Drive, Gainesville, VA 20155.  To contact Chris Ann, call 703-402-0037 or email chrisann@LNF.com.

 

Here's the analysis of foreclosures moving upscale.

The startling headline is this -- in 2006, the top 1/3 most expensive homes in each local area made up 16% of foreclosures. Today, the top 1/3 of homes make up 30% of foreclosures.

And here's the video from Bloomberg TV today discussing this and other issues. Sorry to come off as so pessimistic, but I call 'em like I see 'em. No spin here.

 

 

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This is one of those posts where I wish I didn't have to write it, but felt it was so important to my readers that I would be remiss not to at least talk about it.

Everyone out there probably knows somebody who is behind on their mortgage payments, looking for alternatives and likely also just finding out that their home's value has dipped below what their loan amount is.  I know some within my own personal circles.  It's a tough situation for me to advise them as a professional because it's such a personal challenge to their pride and self-worth, not to mention their plans and dreams for the family. The question we're asking is "when is this going to stop and where are we heading?"

I'm going to put up a few graphs that show the trends nationally with regards to mortgage delinquincies:

This chart is by quarter - Single-family mortgages set a new record delinquency rate in the second quarter of 2009, according to a quarterly survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Those of us in the real estate business see the foreclosure process (just visit the local Sheriff Sale docket to see the current numbers) but the looming delinqency-to-foreclosure issue is far, far larger.

The Wall Street Journal on 8/3/09 reported the following quote: “While subprime mortgages sparked the first round of housing problems two years ago, now "troubles are lurking further up the food chain," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. White-collar job losses have accelerated while more adjustable-rate loans to prime borrowers are resetting to higher payments.  ‘You put all that together, it leads me to believe that the next leg down on home prices is going to come from the top,’ he says.”

The first objection someone may have would be to say "yes, but historically those who are delinqent usually get their act together and come current on the mortgage after a while".  That WAS true, but not anymore!  We call that the "Cure Rate", that is the rate of delinquencies that go back to current.  The Wall Street Journal reported on 8/24/09 about a Fitch analysis that found that the Cure Rate from 2000-2006 was 45% (which means about half of people fix their delinquency).  However, as of July 2009 the rate had dropped to just 6.6%!  That means that over 90% of delinquent customers are going to foreclosure.  Take a look again at the above chart...

The next thing someone will say is "well, that's the 'sand states' and not my area".  Here's the chart for all 50 states showing the same breakdown of delinquencies and foreclosures.  Guess what - most states have a significant problem, especially compared to historical figures.

Now the next thing someone may say is "aren't those loans going to get 'fixed' by a loan modification?"  I know several people right now who are applying for a Lancaster County loan modification but are waiting and waiting.  I hope it works out for them...

In reality, loan modifications are hardly making a dent.  To me, that's a burning question.  Why arent banks being more aggressive in giving customers the option to extend their loan and/or reset to a lower rate?  Why are they being SO difficult? The people I know don't want to be foreclosed.  They CAN make payments.  They just need the terms redrawn to allow them to catch & keep up.  Loan modifications are not helping us get this crisis under control.

What are the causes of all these delinquencies?  Here's a chart that is enlightening:

We hear a lot about adjustable rate mortgages being the culprit, but the reality is that it's the loss of jobs and the tanking real estate market that's the perfect storm.  See my previous post on unemployment in the nation, the state and Lancaster County.

Keep in mind, this post is not intended to give us "good news".  You may be experiencing good things in your market and that's great.  My intent is to get us thinking about the challenges that aren't going away and how we're going to address them as homeowners, agents and professionals.  I'd love to hear your ideas!